05What the history shows
Patterns found by re-reading the full history, not just the months I ran. Each is labelled: measured pattern, correlation, anomaly or seasonality.
Correlation, not causationFebruary 2026 already showed the August 'wider, not better' pattern; orders sit near a 2,000 a month ceiling
Jan to Feb 2026: sessions +39.5%, orders -4.4%, conversion rate 0.687% to 0.471%. Aug 2026 landed on the same point: 4,20,817 sessions, 1,960 orders, 0.466%, versus Feb's 4,18,236, 1,970, 0.471%. Orders stayed in 1,642-2,060 from Oct 2025 while sessions swung 2,36,079-4,20,817. AOV and conversion move opposite ways: AOV +14.0% Sep 2025 to Aug 2026, conversion -42.0%, gross sales per session ₹38.6 to ₹25.4. Aug 2026 vs Aug 2025: orders +58.6% (1,236 to 1,960) on Google billed x6.48 (₹1,67,886 to ₹10,87,899), about ₹1,271 of extra Google billing per extra order, Google only; Meta Aug 2026 unknown.
The numbers
Sessions vs conversion rate r = -0.93 (n=12); sessions vs orders r = +0.74; log-log slope 0.37 (1% more sessions, ~0.37% more orders); AOV vs conversion r = -0.55; Feb 2026 and Aug 2026 gross sales ₹1.22 Cr vs ₹1.07 Cr on the same orders. Revenue YoY not comparable: Aug 2025 is workbook net (₹56.0 L), Aug 2026 is Shopify gross (₹1.07 Cr) or derived net (₹80.2 L). AOV in the series is net of discounts (Aug: (10,684,206-531,024)/1,960 = ₹5,180).
So whatExtra traffic has hit the same ceiling twice. The cart, not reach, caps orders; Feb tracking break (2.9% coverage) means the cause of Feb's dip cannot be fully separated.
SeasonalityThe spring demand dip is seasonal; spend did not flex with it in year two
Oct-Jan vs Mar-Jun, using actual months only. Year one: spend -18.1%, orders -17.0%, CAC flat. Year two: spend +6.0%, orders -11.6%, CAC +19.9%. Only Meta rose in year two (+14.2%); Google fell 17.9%.
The numbers
Y1 (Oct24-Jan25 vs Mar-Jun25): orders 3,399 to 2,822; spend ₹39.9 L to ₹32.7 L; CAC ₹1,174 to ₹1,158; MER 3.34x to 2.94x. Y2 (Oct25-Jan26 vs Mar-Jun26): orders 7,802 to 6,900; spend ₹82.9 L to ₹87.9 L; CAC ₹1,062 to ₹1,274; net revenue ₹3.32 Cr to ₹3.15 Cr; MER 4.01x to 3.58x. Meta ₹61.8 L to ₹70.6 L; Google ₹21.1 L to ₹17.3 L.
So whatPart of the 2026 MER and CAC slide is calendar, part is spend held flat into a weaker quarter. Plan spend by season. Two observations only (two years); Oct-Jan includes festive and wedding peaks.
Correlation, not causationCAC rose 77% in 11 months and the rise sits almost entirely in Meta spend per order
Blended CAC ₹903 (Aug 2025) to ₹1,597 (Jul 2026). Of the ₹694 rise, ₹570 (82%) is Meta spend per order (₹788 to ₹1,357); Google spend per order moved ₹115 to ₹240 and shows no trend from Oct onward (₹193-362). Meta share of spend fell 93.9% to 78.4% year on year, but Meta spend still doubled (₹90.4 L to ₹1.91 Cr) while Google grew x8.96 (₹5.9 L to ₹52.6 L).
The numbers
Meta Feb to Jun 2026: spend +21.0%, orders -9.6%. Meta spend vs orders r = +0.17 and Google spend vs orders r = +0.71 (Sep 2025-Jul 2026, n=11). Google share of blended spend peaked 31.7% (Nov 2025) and was 15.0% in Jul 2026. Jul 2026 orders (1,538) are the workbook estimate.
So whatThe Google rebuild addressed the smaller cost line. Orders are all-channel, so this is spend allocation per order, not Meta-attributed CAC; Meta results by campaign were never supplied.
SeasonalityMarch return spike repeats; the Aug 2025 MER peak was flattered by a low return rate
March return rate 35.6% (2025) and 29.4% (2026) against 21.6% and 17.6% for the other 11 months of each year. Net revenue fell 31.4% and 25.4% Feb to Mar while orders fell only 17.7% and 7.9%. February did not repeat (33.5% in 2025, 15.8% in 2026). MER fell in two steps, not gradually: 5.02x (Aug 2025) to 4.05x (Sep), a six-month plateau of 3.82-4.17x (avg 4.04x), then 3.43x (Mar 2026) and 2.68x (Jul 2026). Q3 to Q4 2025 was already -12.4% (4.51x to 3.95x).
The numbers
Order-weighted return rate 22.6% (Aug24-Jul25) to 18.9% (Aug25-Jul26); 19.2% excluding the estimated Jul 2026. Aug 2025 return rate 10.1% is the 24-month low; at 19.83% (average of other year-two months) Aug 2025 MER is ~4.48x, not 5.02x. Mar 2025 net revenue per order ₹2,860 is the 24-month low. MER vs monthly spend r = -0.69 (Aug25-Jul26, n=12) vs -0.15 across 24 months.
So whatReturns lag and post in batches (days 18-31), so month-level MER is noisy. Compare quarters and expect a March return hit in 2027. Workbook return-rate definition is not stated and may differ from Shopify's 19.8% reversals.
Measured patternThe Search layer got cheaper while its share of Google spend shrank 5x
Search CPA fell ₹117 (Q2 2025) to ₹17 (Q2 2026), CPC ₹5.70 to ₹0.69, CTR 28% to 39% (a brand-term profile). Search cost fell 21.6% (Q3 2025 to Q2 2026) while total Google cost rose x3.94, so Search went from 1.05% to 0.21% of Google cost. Non-search CPA rose ₹969 to ₹1,489 (+53.7%). Search conversions peaked in Q1 2026 (242.6) and fell 32.4% in Q2 (164.0). Q3 2026 CPA ₹165 is the new brand campaign: ₹12,811 for 8.00 conversions (₹1,601); the rest of Search ran ₹3,697 for 91.98 conversions, ₹40.2 (vs ₹17.2 in Q2).
The numbers
Quarterly Search CPA: ₹116.8, 32.1, 34.9, 20.5, 17.2, then 165.1 (Q3 2026, to 17 Aug, partial). Search share of conversions 24.3% (Q3 2025) to 15.3% (Q2 2026) on 0.21% of cost. Overview-export basis, all-action conversions.
So whatBrand demand (~₹64 a day) is a ceiling, not a growth lever; the cheap Search CPA could not absorb budget. My brand campaign explains the Q3 spike, but the inherited layer also worsened 2.3x.