05What the history shows
Patterns found by re-reading the full history, not just the months I ran. Each is labelled: measured pattern, correlation, anomaly or seasonality.
AnomalyThe noindex percentage and the crawl size do not match
Sources say 42 noindex URLs = 24.85% of a crawl of ~93 URLs. 42 / 93 is 45.2%. 24.85% only works on a base of ~169 URLs. One of the two bases is wrong, or the crawl included non-HTML files, so I quote the count, 42, not a share.
The numbers
42 / 0.2485 = 169. 42 / 93 = 45.2%. ~85 attachment URLs / ~93 = 91% of the crawl. ~7 real pages.
So whatState one base. On the ~93 base, nearly half of crawled URLs are noindex and about 9 in 10 are junk attachments.
Anomaly'Duplicate' titles are 'Multiple' in the crawl export
The case study says duplicate titles, metas and H1s across ~48-51 URLs. The competitor PDF names the export filters as 'Page Titles: Multiple = 51' and 'H1: Multiple = 47', flagged as plugin or module conflicts. 'Multiple' means more than one tag on a page, a different fault with a different fix.
The numbers
Titles multiple 51 URLs. H1 multiple 47 URLs. README range 48-51. Overlap with the ~85 attachment URLs: DATA NOT AVAILABLE.
So whatConfirm the filter before the migration spec. If the 51 are mostly attachment pages, the real-page metadata problem is smaller than stated.
AnomalyThe review target is far above the review history
15 reviews since 2018 is about 0.16 a month if all came since founding. The plan asks for 25 reviews in 30 days (+10) and 45+ in 90 days (+30). That is 24x to 64x the historical pace, depending on when reviews started.
The numbers
15 / 96 months = 0.16 a month. +10 in 30 days = 64x. If reviews began 36 months ago: 15 / 36 = 0.42 a month; 24x. Job volume per month: DATA NOT AVAILABLE.
So whatThe review engine depends on completed jobs per month, which no source gives. Treat 25 and 45 as stretch targets until job volume is known.
AnomalyMonth-1 plan conflicts with itself on sequencing
03-Current-State says do not patch WordPress, carry fixes into the .NET build. The keyword workbook roadmap says fix the Gutenverse plugin first, 'Critical, do first', and that every page build is blocked until then. Week 3 ships Water, Emergency, Boone and Ames pages. The migration date is not given. By day 60 the roadmap adds ~10 pages (5 pillars, 4 towns, 1 hub) on top of ~10, ~20 in all, against a 90-day target of ~17+ indexed pages.
The numbers
Day-30 target ~10 indexed pages. Day-60 additions: Mold, Fire, Storm, Commercial, Sewage + Ogden, Madrid, Nevada, Story City + insurance hub = 10. 90-day target ~17+. Sitemap lists 37 URLs.
So whatDecide the platform for Week 3 and fix the KPI targets. Without a migration date, none of the Month-1 page dates can be promised.
Measured patternDemand is sized in bands, and almost all bands are Low
Of 56 keywords across service gaps and local plan, 38 (68%) are Low band, 17 Med, 1 High. No service keyword is High. The one High band keyword is Des Moines, deferred to a later phase. 3 of the 5 'Critical' local keywords are Low.
The numbers
Service gaps: 25 Low, 10 Med, 0 High (35). Local: 13 Low, 7 Med, 1 High (21). Critical local: 3 Low, 2 Med. Bands are estimates from population and intent, not search volume.
So whatHome turf is winnable but small. No source sizes the calls available. Pull exact volume before promising lead numbers.