05What the history shows
Patterns found by re-reading the full history, not just the months I ran. Each is labelled: measured pattern, correlation, anomaly or seasonality.
AnomalyThe $118 account CPL excludes $3,648 of spend
Three live campaigns spent $5,667 for 48 leads = $118.06. The account-total row shows $9,315. $9,315 / 48 = $194.06. The headline $118 is the live-campaign figure, not the account figure. Jun 1-17 spend ($9,315 - $8,320 = $995, $58.53/day) fits the $60/day cap, so $9,315 and $8,320 look like one spend series; leads do not reconcile (56 vs 48).
The numbers
Campaigns: $3,916 + $1,607 + $144 = $5,667. Account total $9,315. Gap $3,648 (39%). 5,667/48 = $118.06. 9,315/48 = $194.06. Clicks 266+129+37 = 432; 48/432 = 11.11% (matches table). Jun 1-17: $995 / 17 = $58.53 per day vs $60 budget.
So whatQuote CPL with its base. Spend in the 14 paused campaigns carries no lead count in any source. True account-wide CPL is unknown.
Measured patternForemost has the lowest top-of-page rate of all six advertisers
The report headline says Foremost wins 62% of auctions it enters. The metric is top-of-page rate. At 62.04% it sits below all five rivals (65.97% to 86.35%). Rivals appear above Foremost 37.5% to 85.4% of shared auctions. Foremost outranks them only 21-22% of the time.
The numbers
Top of page: stellar 86.35, recovery-claim 81.49, fightforyourclaim 73.60, alphapia 68.02, yourinsuranceattorney 65.97, Foremost 62.04. Outranking share 21.29-22.45%. Position above 37.54-85.40%.
So whatThe ad is not 'strong when it shows'. Bid and rank are weak as well as budget. The 8 Jul audit separately notes Foremost trails 2 of 3 tracked rivals on generic absolute top rate.
Measured patternDesktop gap is real. The May drop and Jan-Apr gain are noise.
Desktop cost 4 x $397.95 = $1,592, 28% of $5,667 spend, for 4 of 48 leads. That CVR gap is statistically clear. May vs April (3 fewer leads) and Jan vs April are not significant at 95%.
The numbers
Desktop 4/147 clicks (2.72%) vs mobile 43/276 (15.58%): z = 4.0, p < 0.001. Apr 15/146 vs May 12/160: z = 0.85, p = 0.39. Jan 9/159 vs Apr: z = 1.49, p = 0.13. Feb 7/157 vs Apr: z = 1.95, p = 0.051.
So whatPresent the device fix as proven. Present 'May regression' and 'CVR doubled' as unproven: 5 months and 56 leads is too thin.
AnomalyThe brand name drew 46 impressions. Rivals' names drew 1,806.
The paused brand keyword earned 46 impressions and 10 clicks in its lifetime, at $5.66 a click. The audit expects branded CPC of $0.50-2.50. Foremost's own broad keywords showed 1,806 impressions on 'stellar public adjusting', 39x its own name.
The numbers
$56.55 / 10 clicks = $5.66 CPC. 1,806 / 46 = 39.3x. Competitor term spend $122.31. $150-300 per month at $5.66 buys 27-53 clicks vs 10 lifetime.
So whatBrand search demand looks small. The audit's 'highest-ROI fix' rests on generic benchmarks, not this account. Size the brand budget after a live check.
Measured patternTwo keywords took 66% of Local & Near Me spend
'public claims adjuster near me' ($533.48, 1 lead) and 'pub. adj. for home ins. claim' (~$526.68, 2 leads) cost $1,060 of the campaign's $1,607. Without them the campaign runs at ~$91 CPL, not $178.51.
The numbers
$533.48 + $526.68 = $1,060.16 (66% of $1,607; 3 of 9 leads). Remainder $546.84 / 6 leads = $91.14.
So whatCampaign-level CPL hid a two-keyword leak. Hindsight view; it needs checking against live search terms before claiming savings.